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A data center is a supply chain. Chips, power equipment, and a grid connection all have to arrive before the first GPU-hour sells.
A worked example built from public events. It describes no client.
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The developer has hedged copper, power, and the rate on its debt.
Revenue starts only when the site is energized.
Large transformers are built to order with lead times measured in years, and the grid connects new load in sequence.
A slip at either step moves the first day of revenue while the debt keeps running.
The contract names the site, its planned in-service date in the interconnection queue, and a twelve-month window from signing.
If energization passes the scheduled date by 30 days, the contract pays a third of its maximum, rising to the full amount at 90 days.
Share of the maximum it pays
The listed hedge follows the benchmark. The shaded gap is what stays with the business.
2
Transformer producer prices is at 475.1 index, June 1981 = 100, up 7.8% over 12 months.
What a transformer costs is published every month. The date it arrives, which sets the first day of revenue, is not.
Monthly, to September 2026. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED.
Illustrative. Drawn to show the shape, not market data.
Illustrative drawing, not market data. Capacity online against Planned capacity; the shaded gap between them is the spread. A faint band marks the window a contract would cover.
Every step has its own lead time and its own record. The longest one sets the day revenue starts.
3
Each is a spread a listed market leaves with the business in compute.
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The first call takes thirty minutes and stays on one material exposure.
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The sectors whose risks run alongside this one.
All sectorsTell us what can change, where, when, and why it matters to the business. The first call takes thirty minutes.